Author: Adam Burns; Alexander Gutfraind
Title: Symptom-Based Isolation Policies: Evidence from a Mathematical Model of Outbreaks of Influenza and COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: d13j2pt5_27
Snippet: With one day of isolation the peak number of infected is reduced by 20% and the duration increases by 6 days, thus flattening the curve. No benefit was found from increasing the post-fever isolation period beyond one day. If the rate of detecting fever is a higher rate of 88%, implementing a 1 fever-free day achieves an 8% reduction in the attack rate (from 59% to 50% in the median), a 20% reduction in the peak concurrently infected and a 7 day i.....
Document: With one day of isolation the peak number of infected is reduced by 20% and the duration increases by 6 days, thus flattening the curve. No benefit was found from increasing the post-fever isolation period beyond one day. If the rate of detecting fever is a higher rate of 88%, implementing a 1 fever-free day achieves an 8% reduction in the attack rate (from 59% to 50% in the median), a 20% reduction in the peak concurrently infected and a 7 day increase in the duration of the outbreak. At this higher rate of symptom detection, increasing the isolation to 6 days achieves an attack rate of 0.43 (0.03-0.82) -a 15% reduction from no policy (see data in Appendix B).
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