The current state of COVID-19 in Australia: importation and spread

Jessica Liebig; Raja Jurdak; Ahmad El Shoghri; Dean Paini

We predict the number of arrivals into Australia for the year 2020 based on ten years of historical data (January 2010 -December 2019) using a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model, denoted ARIMA(p, d, q)(P, D, Q) m , where p is the autoregressive order of the non-seasonal part, d is the order of differencing that is required to remove the trend from the time series, q is the non-seasonal order of the moving-average model and m is the number of observations per year. Parameters P , D and Q are the seasonal counterparts of p, d and q. The autoregressive part of the model uses a linear combination of previous values of the time-series. That is, the autoregressive order p indicates the number of previous values considered in the prediction. Table 1 lists the input parameters of 2 . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.