The Easter and Passover Blip in New York City

Maximilian Vierlboeck; Roshanak R Nilchiani; Christine M Edwards

The above descried scenario assessed short singular increases, which might happen again in the future for certain events. This leaves the question though, since the last scenario already showed an interplay between two singular increases, how sustained increases, even if temporarily limited to various days, affect the numbers and if the reciprocity effects multiply. Therefore, this last scenario assesses a constant increase over Easter weekend, for example, if people would spend multiple days with family or other gathers, which is not unusual. Again, in order to simulate various severities of increases, four runs were conducted with differences of 25% yielding the past run as a return all the way to the effective contact rate of 10.325 for three days (Good Friday through Easter Sunday). The results are depicted in Figure 10 through 13 on the next pages and discussed thereinafter. Figure 14 shows the hospitalizations over 180 days for demonstration purposes.