The effect of control strategies that reduce social mixing on outcomes of the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan, China

Kiesha Prem; Yang Liu; Tim Russell; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Nicholas Davies; Mark Jit; Petra Klepac

(which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033050 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 4 . Effects of the different social distancing measures on the cumulative incidence (A) and new cases per day (B), and age-specific incidence per day (C to G) from late 2019 to mid-2020. The median cumulative incidence, incident cases per day and age-specific incidence per day are represented as solid lines. The 25 th and 75 th percentile outbreaks are represented by the shaded area in the cumulative incidence. Theoretical no intervention (black line), school break and Lunar New Year (blue line) and intense control measures that are relaxed in a staggered fashion at the beginning of March (red line), and intense control measured that are relaxed in a staggered fashion at the beginning of April (orange line). Shading indicates the timing of the school holidays, Lunar New Year weekend (dark vertical line), intense control measures (dark grey), and staggered return to work followed by school opening (lighter grey).