Author: Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds
Title: The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: g0pxqqga_31
Snippet: In spite of this substantial reduction in burden, the projections still showed a large number of cases (6.6-21 million), and a large number of ICU beds (12-140 thousand) occupied during the peak of the epidemic ( Fig 5b ) . Indeed, we projected that ICU bed capacity could be exceeded by 5-fold or more for several weeks. While we could not explicitly predict the impact of this on mortality rates, this would likely lead to an increased case fatalit.....
Document: In spite of this substantial reduction in burden, the projections still showed a large number of cases (6.6-21 million), and a large number of ICU beds (12-140 thousand) occupied during the peak of the epidemic ( Fig 5b ) . Indeed, we projected that ICU bed capacity could be exceeded by 5-fold or more for several weeks. While we could not explicitly predict the impact of this on mortality rates, this would likely lead to an increased case fatality ratio.
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