The effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 cases, deaths and demand for hospital services in the UK: a modelling study

Nicholas G Davies; Adam J Kucharski; Rosalind M Eggo; Amy Gimma; W. John Edmunds

(as in Fig. 2 ) presented on 2nd March 2020, which explored various assumptions concerning intervention length and efficacy. We expanded our analysis to explicitly cover all counties in England and analysed the timing of measures, and local versus national deployment of interventions (as in Fig. 3 ), on 8th March 2020. Our analyses of the impact of curtailing sporting events and leisure activities (as in Fig. 4a ) , and of the potential impact of repeated lockdown measures (as in Fig. 5 ), were presented on 11th March 2020. Our sensitivity analysis for increased child-grandparent contacts (as in Fig. 4b ) was presented on 17th March 2020. The results shown in the main text are based on the final version of the model, and reflect our current state of knowledge about the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. However, our overall conclusions about the relative effectiveness of different strategies for reducing the burden of COVID-19 in the UK are the same as those presented to decision makers in real-time.