Author: James H. Fowler; Seth J. Hill; Nick Obradovich; Remy Levin
Title: The Effect of Stay-at-Home Orders on COVID-19 Infections in the United States Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 4s8unfnk_8
Snippet: In our data, we observe cumulative infections ( y ct ) but these include both infected and recovered individuals y ct = I ct + R ct . We do not observe the number of recovered individuals, but we assume it approximately equals the number of infected individuals d days prior to the current period ( R ct = y ct-d ), where d represents the number of days individuals remain infected. Because a specific value for d is unknown for COVID-19, we estimate.....
Document: In our data, we observe cumulative infections ( y ct ) but these include both infected and recovered individuals y ct = I ct + R ct . We do not observe the number of recovered individuals, but we assume it approximately equals the number of infected individuals d days prior to the current period ( R ct = y ct-d ), where d represents the number of days individuals remain infected. Because a specific value for d is unknown for COVID-19, we estimate models with different assumed values. We also assume that the portion of the population that is susceptible , since /N S ct ct = 1 the number of observed cumulative cases is typically 1% or less of the population in each county for this study, suggesting the rest remain susceptible (we elaborate on the limitations of this assumption in the discussion).
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