Selected article for: "age threshold and herd immunity"
Author: Alastair D Jamieson-Lane; Eric Cytrnbaum
Title: The Effectiveness of Targeted Quarantine for Minimising Impact of COVID-19
  • Document date: 2020_4_3
    • ID: jnz5by5w_24
    Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049692 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 2 : Epidemic curves assuming 110 days of quarantine (t s = 70, t e = 180), for a variety of age thresholds A. Total Ventilator numbers are given by the black line. Note that the results of quarantining everyone and quarantining no one are largely the same, with quarantine simply delaying the peak. .....
    Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049692 doi: medRxiv preprint Figure 2 : Epidemic curves assuming 110 days of quarantine (t s = 70, t e = 180), for a variety of age thresholds A. Total Ventilator numbers are given by the black line. Note that the results of quarantining everyone and quarantining no one are largely the same, with quarantine simply delaying the peak. An age cut off of 50 years (teal curve) captures a large enough portion of the population to achieve herd immunity, while reducing fatalities compared to cut offs at 60 or 70 years. Figure 3 : Depending on the placement of our quarantine threshold, both peak and total ICU admissions vary. Given that hospital facilities are rapidly overwhelmed in even the best case scenario above, total ICU demand is expected to be a close proxy for total fatalities. A threshold at 50 years of age minimizes this number.

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