The effects of border control and quarantine measures on global spread of COVID-19

M. Pear Hossain; Alvin Junus; Xiaolin Zhu; Pengfei Jia; Tzai-Hung Wen; Dirk Pfeiffer; Hsiang-Yu Yuan

The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.13.20035261 doi: medRxiv preprint q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q q ν = 8 0 30 60 90 120 0 1 J a n 0 3 J a n 0 5 J a n 0 7 J a n 0 9 J a n 1 1 J a n 1 3 J a n 1 5 J a n 1 7 J a n 1 9 J a n 2 1 J a n 2 3 J a n 2 5 J a n 2 7 J a n 2 9 J a n Date Cumulative number of secondary cases generated by the imported cases B e ij in g S h a n g h a i G u a n g z h o u C h e n g d u K u n m in g X ia m e n S h e n z h e n N a n n in g Q in g d a o S h e n y a n g City Table 1 : Actual and predicted arrival time of outbreak emergence at top ten connected cities in China. R 0 = 2.92 with incubation time τ = 5.2 days and τ = 14 days were used. CI Sec is the cumulative number of secondary infected cases generated by the imported cases. The actual arrival time of outbreak is defined as the the date when the number of cumulative cases is larger than the threshold number 8 and the number of newly reported cases is larger than 5. 9.2 days reporting lag between the date of onset and the date of diagnosis was estimated using the top five cities with most number of confirmed cases. Figure 4 and supplementary Figure S7 ).