The Epidemiological Implications of Incarceration Dynamics in Jails for Community, Corrections Officer, and Incarcerated Population Risks from COVID-19

Eric Lofgren; Kristian Lum; Aaron Horowitz; Brooke Madubuowu; Nina Fefferman

m qr is the number of times a person in category q is in contact with a person in 117 category r. We use the category-category contact rates given in [20] . c q is the 118 proportion of COVID-19 cases that occurred for people in category q and p q is the 119 proportion of the total population in category q. The ratio of these two terms, c q p −1 q , is 120 meant to capture the relative proclivity for people in group q to be infected by the virus. 121 We use case counts and population information for South Korea as reported by 122 Statista. 45 t i is the number of daily contacts for individuals in category q, as reported 123 in [21] . The β * s are normalized such that the Child-Child transmission is equal to one. 124 The resulting values of β C * is shown in Table 1 Within the jail and processing, we assume that mixing patterns are not 126 category-dependent. We set β J * = β J * qr = β C * LL c j and β P * = β P * qr = β C * LL c p , where β C * LL is 127 the low risk adult to low risk adult base transmission rate in the community and c j and 128 c p are factors that denotes how times more contacts per day a person in jail or 129 processing, respectively, has than a person in the community. We set these values to be 130 c j = 3 and c p = 6, corresponding to an assumption of three and six times more contact 131 in jail and processing, respectively, than take place in the community. values may be found in Table 2 .