Author: Knut M. Wittkowski
Title: The first three months of the COVID-19 epidemic: Epidemiological evidence for two separate strains of SARS-CoV-2 viruses spreading and implications for prevention strategies Document date: 2020_3_31
ID: 2ytec133_40
Snippet: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715 doi: medRxiv preprint (Fig 13) . Even if the intervention is extended from one to four months, no herd immunity is created and, thus, the epidemic rebounds and will run eight months, instead of three (Fig 3) or less (Fig 12) . To avoid or even reduce the rebound, one would have to end the restrictions in the lowest risk popula.....
Document: is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.03.28.20036715 doi: medRxiv preprint (Fig 13) . Even if the intervention is extended from one to four months, no herd immunity is created and, thus, the epidemic rebounds and will run eight months, instead of three (Fig 3) or less (Fig 12) . To avoid or even reduce the rebound, one would have to end the restrictions in the lowest risk populations (school children, young adults) first to increase the immune/susceptible ratio (the effects of targeting subpopulations differently are not accounted for in simple SIR models).
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