The Immediate Effect of COVID-19 Policies on Social Distancing Behavior in the United States

Rahi Abouk; Babak Heydari

There is strong evidence that social distancing has played a significant role in containing the first wave of COVID-19 outbreak in China 4-6 and the latest evidence indicates their effectiveness in Italy and Spain at the end of the first week of April 2020. However, the relative impact of social-awareness versus policy interventions is yet to be determined for the existing outbreak. In addition, several complementary policies were adopted to increase social distancing, some of which might have unintended consequences. Therefore, identifying effective policies could help policymakers respond efficiently to the outbreak. In most cases, decoupling these factors is challenging, since, in most countries, the timing and strength of NPI are highly correlated with public awareness. Moreover, it is crucial to determine which interventions have a significant impact on lowering the contact rate beyond what can be achieved via awareness mechanisms. Furthermore, the evaluation of these policies could provide valuable lessons, especially for the states that have not yet adopted these policies.