The Impact of School Closure for COVID-19 on the US Healthcare Workforce and the Net Mortality Effects

Jude Bayham; Eli P Fenichel

The benefit from closing schools during an epidemic is to reduce transmission and new cases. Cauchemez et al. estimated that extended school closures in France could reduce H5N1 influenza cases by 13-17%. 2 Bayham et al. show that schools are likely places for transmission among US children. 3 However, Bayham et al. also show voluntary behavioral changes, without mandatory shutdowns, appeared to reduce cases of the 2009 H1N1 influenza on the order of 10-13%. In a systematic review, focused on influenza and school closures, Jackson et al. find some evidence that school closures are effective, but that the empirical evidence does not resolve how or when to close schools. 4 Furthermore, they find school closure mostly reduces infection in school children. Koh et al. do not find strong evidence that school closures prevent the spread of hand, foot, and mouth disease. 5 Adda finds that while school closures do reduce incidence in France, the economic costs are large. 6 The benefits of school closure are often estimated relative to a baseline of no voluntary changes in behavior, but it is likely that the correct baseline for forcasting the school closure effect on COVID-19 includes other voluntary behavioral changes.