The Prediction for Development of COVID-19 in Global Major Epidemic Areas Through Empirical Trends in China by Utilizing State Transition Matrix Model

Zhong Zheng; Ke Wu; Zhixian Yao; Junhua Zheng; Jian Chen

Moreover, we must strictly follow the coping strategy and learn the Chinese model for dealing with NCP outbreaks. Li et al. developed a simple regression model, and based on this model, they estimated that about 34 founder patients outside of China were not observed in the early stage of transmission, and the global trend approximated an exponential increase, tenfold increase in 19 days [19] . This study reproduced the disease's initial spread to the world, yet made no prediction for the future trend, and exponential growth will be curbed immediately after the attention of local governments, and the IFP will come. Milan Batista proposed an estimate of the final size of the COVID-19 epidemic, the logistic growth model and classic susceptible-infected-recovered dynamic model are used to estimate the final size of the coronavirus epidemic, being approximately 83700 (±1300) cases and that the peak of the epidemic was on Feb 9 2020 [20] . However, as of Mar 5, the number of global cases has reached 95,333, and the IFP for growth in South Korea, Italy, and Iran has not yet arrived, which means the global size will be even more colossal.