The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic outbreak: a review of plausible scenarios of containment and mitigation for Mexico

Manuel Adrian Acuna-Zegarra; Andreu Comas-Garcia; Esteban Hernandez-Vargas; Mario Santana-Cibrian; Jorge X. Velasco-Hernandez

At the end of December of 2019 a novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, was detected in adults with pneumonia from the city of Wuhan, Hubei Province, China. This new virus rapidly spread from Hubei Province to all China [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] . By January 22th the virus was detected in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand. Macao and USA. By March 12 of 2020, 128,343 cases of new virus have been detected in 116 countries and 63% of the cases has been register in Continental China. In February 26, Brazil was the first country of Latin America to detect this virus and Mexico detect his first case one day later [6] . CoVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, that has been widely studied in these recents weeks and we defer its description to the appropriate sources e.g. [4, 5] . The disease has been extensively modeled as a SEIR type of epidemic. In this work we use the SEIR model framework adapting it to the particular set of problems addressed here. In each section, dependent on the model variant used, we introduce the new parameters if any and refer to the appropriate section in the Appendix for the specific model equations. The rate ω or the related time 1/ω is the mean time of application of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI). All the recommendations that are being advised to prevent infection affect behavior (washing hands, keeping cough/sneeze etiquette, avoiding handshakes, keeping distance from other people) and, therefore, have a learning curve and can be forgotten or relaxed or incompletely adopted in any given population; also q is the proportion of the population that is effectively put under isolation. For example, in Wuhan, about 60% of the population was put under isolation. The total population normally living in that region is of about 14 million but the population at risk was obviously larger comprising much of the Hubei region.