Author: Sang Woo Park; Daniel M Cornforth; Jonathan Dushoff; Joshua S Weitz
Title: The time scale of asymptomatic transmission affects estimates of epidemic potential in the COVID-19 outbreak Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 50zrnau8_27
Snippet: Conversely, whenḠa <Ḡs , generation intervals are shorter, leading to lower estimates of the epidemic strength R 0 . Both of these effects are stronger when the intrinsic proportion of asymptomatic transmission z increases (and disappear as z → 0). Therefore, when R 0 is estimated without explicitly accounting for asymptomatic spread (white, dashed line in Figure 1B ), it can be over-or under-estimated depending on the relative duration o.....
Document: Conversely, whenḠa <Ḡs , generation intervals are shorter, leading to lower estimates of the epidemic strength R 0 . Both of these effects are stronger when the intrinsic proportion of asymptomatic transmission z increases (and disappear as z → 0). Therefore, when R 0 is estimated without explicitly accounting for asymptomatic spread (white, dashed line in Figure 1B ), it can be over-or under-estimated depending on the relative duration of infection between symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals. The qualitative effects of z andḠa /Ḡs . CC-BY-ND 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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