Author: Wei Aun Yap; Dhesi Baha Raja
Title: Time-variant strategies for optimizing the performance of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in protecting lives and livelihoods during the COVID-19 pandemic Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 180x1fvb_52
Snippet: No 'acceptable' path to exit within 6 months. If acceptability is defined in terms of avoiding overwhelming health system capacity, none of the scenarios modeled allow for an 'acceptable' exit within 6 months. An exit is defined in this context as a population which has enough immune individuals to prevent a further outbreak from being sustained without any NPIs in place. The highest performing model flattens the curve substantially from a peak p.....
Document: No 'acceptable' path to exit within 6 months. If acceptability is defined in terms of avoiding overwhelming health system capacity, none of the scenarios modeled allow for an 'acceptable' exit within 6 months. An exit is defined in this context as a population which has enough immune individuals to prevent a further outbreak from being sustained without any NPIs in place. The highest performing model flattens the curve substantially from a peak prevalence of 231 per 1,000 in the baseline scenario to 52 per 1,000 (Figure 7 Scenario E3) with six months of intervention but will still overwhelm the health system capacity by an order of magnitude or more for the 6 months of the intervention followed by 6 months for the outbreak to dissipate on its own. Further analysis is warranted to devise an optimal path towards an exit which does not overwhelm health system capacity, but the modeling assumptions in scenario E3 can inform the lower bound of the socioeconomic price -an NPI which keeps COVID-19 cases within health system capacity will need to stretch on for longer than 6 months and at greater intensity than the 70% used in this scenario.
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