Author: Douglas Gunzler; Ashwini R Sehgal
Title: Time-Varying COVID-19 Reproduction Number in the United States Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: crmrqy74_10
Snippet: Many COVID-19 cases, particularly asymptomatic and mild ones, are not reported to public health departments so our calculation may underestimate the true reproduction number. In addition, the number of people tested has increased greatly in recent days as testing kits have become more available. This would be expected to increase COVID-19 diagnoses and therefore the reproduction number. It is encouraging that we found a reduction in reproduction .....
Document: Many COVID-19 cases, particularly asymptomatic and mild ones, are not reported to public health departments so our calculation may underestimate the true reproduction number. In addition, the number of people tested has increased greatly in recent days as testing kits have become more available. This would be expected to increase COVID-19 diagnoses and therefore the reproduction number. It is encouraging that we found a reduction in reproduction number despite this increase in testing. Other limitations include the lack of United States data on serial intervals, daily reproduction numbers can be highly variable and the small numbers of cases in some states.
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