To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Steffen E. Eikenberry; Marina Mancuso; Enahoro Iboi; Tin Phan; Keenan Eikenberry; Yang Kuang; Eric Kostelich; Abba B. Gumel

This yields 18 scenarios in all (nine mask coverage/efficacy scenarios, plus two underlying trends). Following the modeled imposition of masks on April 2, 2020, the scenarios are run for 60 additional simulated days. Figures 6 and 8 summarize the future modeled death toll in each city under the 18 different scenarios, along with historical mortality data. Figures 7 and 9 show modeled daily death rates, with deaths peaking sometime in late April in New York state under all scenarios, while deaths could peak anywhere from mid-April to later than May, for Washington state. We emphasize that these are hypothetical and exploratory results, with possible death tolls varying dramatically based upon the future course of β(t). However, the results do suggest that even modestly effective masks, if widely used, could help "bend the curve," with the relative benefit greater in combination with a lower baseline β 0 or stronger underlying trend towards smaller β(t) (i.e., in Washington vs. New York).