To mask or not to mask: Modeling the potential for face mask use by the general public to curtail the COVID-19 pandemic

Steffen E. Eikenberry; Marina Mancuso; Enahoro Iboi; Tin Phan; Keenan Eikenberry; Yang Kuang; Eric Kostelich; Abba B. Gumel

Our theoretical results still must be interpreted with caution, owing to a combination of potential high rates of noncompliance with mask use in the community, uncertainty with respect to the intrinsic effectiveness of (especially homemade) masks at blocking respiratory droplets and/or aerosols, and even surprising amounts of uncertainty regarding the basic mechanisms for respiratory infection transmission [4, 41] . Several lines of evidence support the notion that masks can interfere with respiratory virus transmission, including clinical trials in healthcare workers [3, 4] , experimental studies as reviewed [12, 10, 9, 15, 11] , and case control data from the 2003 SARS epidemic [1, 2] . Given the demonstrated efficacy of medical masks in healthcare workers [3] , and their likely superiority over cloth masks in [5] , it is clearly essential that healthcare works be prioritized when it comes to the most effective medical mask supply. Fortunately, our theoretical results suggest significant (but potentially highly variable) value even to low quality masks when used widely in the community.