Author: Lauren Tindale; Michelle Coombe; Jessica E Stockdale; Emma Garlock; Wing Yin Venus Lau; Manu Saraswat; Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee; Louxin Zhang; Dongxuan Chen; Jacco Wallinga; Caroline Colijn
Title: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 66ulqu11_46
Snippet: We stratified the incubation period analysis for Tianjin by time of symptom onset (pre-or post-Jan 31, 2020; motivated by quarantine/social distancing measures) and found that the apparent incubation period was longer for those with post-quarantine symptom onset. The reason for this is unclear, but one possible explanation is that there were (unknown, therefore unreported) exposures during the quarantine period. If people are quarantined in group.....
Document: We stratified the incubation period analysis for Tianjin by time of symptom onset (pre-or post-Jan 31, 2020; motivated by quarantine/social distancing measures) and found that the apparent incubation period was longer for those with post-quarantine symptom onset. The reason for this is unclear, but one possible explanation is that there were (unknown, therefore unreported) exposures during the quarantine period. If people are quarantined in groups of (presumed) uninfected cases, pre-symptomatic transmission in quarantine would result in true exposure times that are more recent than reported last possible exposure times.
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