Author: Lauren Tindale; Michelle Coombe; Jessica E Stockdale; Emma Garlock; Wing Yin Venus Lau; Manu Saraswat; Yen-Hsiang Brian Lee; Louxin Zhang; Dongxuan Chen; Jacco Wallinga; Caroline Colijn
Title: Transmission interval estimates suggest pre-symptomatic spread of COVID-19 Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 66ulqu11_48
Snippet: In conclusion, in both the Singapore and Tianjin COVID-19 clusters we identified both the incubation period and the serial interval. Our results suggest that there is substantial pre-symptomatic transmission, with the serial interval shorter than incubation period by 2-4 days. We find differences in estimated incubation period between early and later cases; this may be due to presymptomatic transmission or differences in reporting and/or in perce.....
Document: In conclusion, in both the Singapore and Tianjin COVID-19 clusters we identified both the incubation period and the serial interval. Our results suggest that there is substantial pre-symptomatic transmission, with the serial interval shorter than incubation period by 2-4 days. We find differences in estimated incubation period between early and later cases; this may be due to presymptomatic transmission or differences in reporting and/or in perceived exposure as the outbreak progressed, in the context of social distancing measures. Finally, our shorter serial intervals lead to an estimate of the basic reproduction number of approximately 2 in both datasets, suggesting that stopping half the transmission events may be sufficient to control outbreaks.
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