Selected article for: "epidemic start and initial increment"
Author: Juri Dimaschko; Victor Podolsky
Title: VIRAL MUTATIONS AS A POSSIBLE MECHANISM OF HIDDEN IMMUNIZATION AND CONTAINMENT OF A PANDEMIA
  • Document date: 2020_4_14
    • ID: fukn227t_98
    Snippet: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 10.03.2020, I(0) = 48031 and after 10 days -on 20.03.2020, I(10) = 172591 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 172591 48031 = 0.128. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β −γ, gives an estimate of the initial vi.....
    Document: The initial value of the increment is obtained from the number of sick people on 10.03.2020, I(0) = 48031 and after 10 days -on 20.03.2020, I(10) = 172591 [3]. Hence, the initial increment is α = 1 10 ln 172591 48031 = 0.128. Given the known probability of mutation m=0.39 and a value of the parameter for the rate of exit from the disease γ = 0.03, this, in accordance with the relation α = (1 − m) β −γ, gives an estimate of the initial virus spread rate at the start of the epidemic: β = 0.128+0.03 1−0.39 = 0.32. It is this value of β that leads to the model graph in the Fig.10 .

    Search related documents:
    Co phrase search for related documents
    • initial virus spread rate and model graph: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • initial virus spread rate and parameter value: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • initial virus spread rate and sick people: 1, 2, 3
    • initial virus spread rate and sick people number: 1, 2, 3
    • initial virus spread rate and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • initial virus spread rate estimate and model graph: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • initial virus spread rate estimate and parameter value: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • initial virus spread rate estimate and sick people: 1, 2, 3
    • initial virus spread rate estimate and sick people number: 1, 2, 3
    • initial virus spread rate estimate and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • model graph and parameter value: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • model graph and sick people: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • model graph and sick people number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • model graph and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
    • parameter value and sick people: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • parameter value and sick people number: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • parameter value and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
    • sick people and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4
    • sick people number and spread rate: 1, 2, 3, 4