Author: Ilaria Renna
Title: When will the Covid-19 epidemic fade out? Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: a9bnafr7_13
Snippet: The initial fraction of infected is " = 0.001 (that is 5 individuals). The parameter ( = 14 was chosen on the basis of median incubation period for COVID-19 estimated in 11.5 days of infection [7] : a larger value was chosen because there can be a delay to symptom appearance resulting from the incubation period. The refractory period was chosen arbitrarily as ) = 150, for calculation purposes only. The network is supposed static, that is no indiv.....
Document: The initial fraction of infected is " = 0.001 (that is 5 individuals). The parameter ( = 14 was chosen on the basis of median incubation period for COVID-19 estimated in 11.5 days of infection [7] : a larger value was chosen because there can be a delay to symptom appearance resulting from the incubation period. The refractory period was chosen arbitrarily as ) = 150, for calculation purposes only. The network is supposed static, that is no individuals can change their links. Self-sustained oscillations with a period of nearly 200 days characterize the time series pattern. The system has phase-synchronized oscillations, as it is typical of influenza viruses. As the number of nodes is finite, the infection could end at a fixed time , with no further evolution. Therefore, we added sources of infection in the model, i.e. a limited number of infective individuals remain in this state all the time [8] .
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