Selected article for: "containment achieve and isolation contact tracing"
Author: Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware
Title: Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus
  • Document date: 2020_4_20
    • ID: io2f52kn_11
    Snippet: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 15.20066845 doi: medRxiv preprint COVID-19. As illustrated in figure 1D , the background noise of similar mild symptoms caused by other common pathogens dwarfs the mild COID-19 cases, so almost all of them go untested and undetected. Less than one in every 4000 tests is conducted on a mildly symptomatic case of COVID-19, so even though we assume all severe cases are tested,.....
    Document: The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04. 15.20066845 doi: medRxiv preprint COVID-19. As illustrated in figure 1D , the background noise of similar mild symptoms caused by other common pathogens dwarfs the mild COID-19 cases, so almost all of them go untested and undetected. Less than one in every 4000 tests is conducted on a mildly symptomatic case of COVID-19, so even though we assume all severe cases are tested, only 11% of cases predicted to occur were confirmed. With contact tracing and isolation only being possible for this very small fraction of cases, there are obvious limits to how much it can achieve as a containment intervention in its own right.

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