Selected article for: "capacity population size and population size"
Author: Gerry Killeen; Samson Kiware
Title: Why lockdown? Simplified arithmetic tools for decision-makers, health professionals, journalists and the general public to explore containment options for the novel coronavirus
  • Document date: 2020_4_20
    • ID: io2f52kn_20
    Snippet: Perhaps more to the point, simply expressing ICU capacity as a proportion of overall population size pragmatically puts suggestions that countries should aim to merely slow and mitigate their COVID-19 epidemics into stark perspective. Even if Tanzania can build its ICU capacity from 38 to 114 beds in the coming weeks, and even if the whole population could be somehow perfectly queued up for COVID-19 exposure to make full sequential use of that ca.....
    Document: Perhaps more to the point, simply expressing ICU capacity as a proportion of overall population size pragmatically puts suggestions that countries should aim to merely slow and mitigate their COVID-19 epidemics into stark perspective. Even if Tanzania can build its ICU capacity from 38 to 114 beds in the coming weeks, and even if the whole population could be somehow perfectly queued up for COVID-19 exposure to make full sequential use of that capacity, assuming each patient needs only 1 week in the ICU and all regular causes of ICU admission magically disappeared, it would take almost two centuries to care for the 1.14 million COVID-19 cases expected. Readjusting such hypothetical calculations to represent higher capacity countries like Ireland or the UK shortens these timeline to decades rather than years, so "flattening the curve" to achieve population-wide "herd immunity" is clearly an infeasible and unwise choice.

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