Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread

Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir

By plotting the data according to our mathematical modelling, the mean ratio (η) worldwide has been found in 0.485 in the current state on March the19th, 2020 and the ratio gradually increased from 0.35, to remain stable for a short time in early March at 0.49. (Figure 1a ) By using this mean ratio (η), we have plotted the expected lower bound cases and maximum upper limit of our proposed model for the next 30 days to predict the worldwide size of the pandemic in the coming days. It has been found that the lower bound count for confirmed cases for next 30 days will be 247007 and the maximum upper limit of cases will be 1667719. (Figure 1b) . Similarly, we have plotted the expected death counts by using same mean ratio (η) and found the worldwide death count due to the pandemic with a lower bound value of 8,660 deaths and a maximum upper limit count of 117397 (0.1 million) deaths in next 30 days. (Figure 1c) In order to evaluate and compare the countries strategies to contain COVID-19 based on their GHS index we plotted the pandemic trends for China, Japan, South Korea and Iran in order to assist other counties and international agencies to formulate their policies to address this pandemic. In the case of South Korea, the mean ratio (η) has increased significantly from the 1 st case reported in the country to reach 0.48 and the country now struggles to contain COVID-19 and to stabilise the situation in that country. Their daily case mean ratio (η) is now closing on 0.5 which indicates that the number of new cases are not increasing with respect to the previous day but their mean death rate ratio is still progressing (Figure 2a-i) . We calculated the expected size of the pandemic for the next 30 days and the lower bound count for new cases of 11,279 and the maximum count would be 482,874 cases (Figure 2a-ii) . As far as the current mortality rate for the Republic of Korea (ROK) was concerned which is 1.32, then the expected number of deaths will be approximately148 with respect to lower bound cases. Almost the same mean ratio (η) was found for Daegu, the main city of ROK, and now a new case mean ratio (η) almost reaching 0.5 which means that new cases are stabilised with respect to the previous day (Figure 2a-iii) . While the predicted number of cases for Daegu city determined 7,657 with a lower bound count and a maximum value found 305,884 (0.3 million) new confirmed cases. (Figure 2a-iv) In Japan, the mean ratio (η) value showed successful containment of the COVID-19 spread and death count over a long period of time with minor fluctuations. The condition stabilised (η=0.5) from time to time, both for new confirmed cases and death counts (Figure 2b-i) . But a developing trend is showing that the number of new cases is increasing and we predicted the pandemic count for Japan in next 30 days of new cases lower bound value 781 with a maximum count value of 14,062 (Figure 2b-ii) . The mean ratio (η) for its most affected city of Hakido provides a stabilised death count and the ratio for new cases also stabilised with a mean ratio (η) 0.5. (Figure 2b-iii) . While expected cases count for the next 30 days of Hakido city is predicted with a lower count value of 394 and a maximum upper limit of 451 cases (Figure 2b-iv) .