Author: Muhammad Qasim; Waqas Ahmad; Minami Yoshida; Maree Gould; Muhammad Yasir
Title: Analysis of the Worldwide Corona Virus (COVID-19) Pandemic Trend;A Modelling Study to Predict Its Spread Document date: 2020_4_1
ID: 8lku99jc_21
Snippet: Iran was the 2 nd most affected country outside of China after the outbreak and it has been found that mean ratio (η) for Iran is still increasing at 0.47 for new cases with a death mean ratio (η) of 0.45 indicating that the number of deaths will increase daily with respect to previous days, as more new cases are diagnosed with respect to the last day (Figure 3a) . According to its mean ratio (η) the expected number of cases in next 30 days wi.....
Document: Iran was the 2 nd most affected country outside of China after the outbreak and it has been found that mean ratio (η) for Iran is still increasing at 0.47 for new cases with a death mean ratio (η) of 0.45 indicating that the number of deaths will increase daily with respect to previous days, as more new cases are diagnosed with respect to the last day (Figure 3a) . According to its mean ratio (η) the expected number of cases in next 30 days with a lower bound limit of 38538 while the maximum limit, would provide the worse possible situation as their entire population could be infected. (Figure 3b ) The predicted value for deaths counts for Iran with lower bound count found 1140 with an upper limit of 598478 (Figure 3c ) If the current mortality rate of Iran (7.86 %) is concerned the expected number of death would be according to predicted lower case number will be 2697 in next 30 days.
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