Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

Just like for any accident-the number killed or dying is highly variable depending on who and how many risk-exposed happens to be there, so it is random. In this viral case, the number of deaths also just depends on too many uncontrolled variables and factors (age, pre-existing health conditions, health care system, propensity etc. …) so the average death percentage per infection also varies in magnitude, location and time (as the data clearly show). The correct measure is infection numbers and rates (not the number of deaths), say the number per day. The infections numbers also depend on which country/region they refer to and at what infectious stage (early onset, spread extent, countermeasures employed ... etc.). We already know that if uncontrolled, the increase in infections will rise exponentially, as the rate of infections is proportional to the number infected.