A framework for the study of zoonotic disease emergence and its drivers: spillover of bat pathogens as a case study

Wood, James L. N.; Leach, Melissa; Waldman, Linda; MacGregor, Hayley; Fooks, Anthony R.; Jones, Kate E.; Restif, Olivier; Dechmann, Dina; Hayman, David T. S.; Baker, Kate S.; Peel, Alison J.; Kamins, Alexandra O.; Fahr, Jakob; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Yaa; Suu-Ire, Richard; Breiman, Robert F.; Epstein, Jonathan H.; Field, Hume E.; Cunningham, Andrew A.

Spillover dynamics are subject to a range of local influences and practices, both social and environmental, including environmental influences 1 on viral pathogen dynamics, such as interactions with susceptible sympatric species. Land use, wildlife management and conservation practices can shape bat ecology and populations. The interactions between bats and ecosystems are manifold; through seed dispersal and pollination, bat populations also influence ecological structure and functioning. Infection dynamics are shaped by (and can, in turn, feed back to shape) bat ecology and related ecosystem processes; in turn, infection dynamics influence spillover dynamics. Human -bat interactions, including livelihood and ritual practices, bring different people into contact with bats and potentially expose them to disease. The public perception of bats and bat diseases can trigger eradication efforts that may then increase spillover risks. Public health impacts and detection, including disease surveillance and diagnostics for known pathogens (and capacity to detect previously unrecognized pathogens through newly evolving 'pathogen discovery' techniques [21, 22] ) and healthseeking practices, shape whether human infections with bat-derived pathogens are recognized. Such local system dynamics are shaped by wider drivers of change (environmental, social, political and economic), operating across different geographical scales. Importantly, our framework integrates a focus on political, cultural and policy framings, examining how different people in communities and in national and international agencies understand and represent spillover dynamics, public health threats and influences, and how these framings shape policy responses. Finally, we attend to how local system dynamics are shaped by wider drivers of change-environmental, economic, demographic, social-operating across local, regional, national and global scales. Taken together, bats provide a model for these framework elements, which should provide the evidence required to inform a series of 'one health' interventions and policy impacts, and assist the building of new interdisciplinary capabilities for research, policy engagement and disease mitigation while also enabling the conservation of biodiversity.