An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark

Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation the NPIs, economic constraints, and etc. We assume that cost of NPI implementation increases with implementation strength. In particular, we consider two cost structures, a linear structure in which cost is proportional to NPI strength, and a quadratic structure in which the change in cost with NPI strength is more variable. This paper is focused most extensively on the linear structure. 6. The optimization horizon T is assumed to be the time when effective vaccine becomes available to the community. Although the production of the first doses of vaccine is estimated to take 4-6 months once the virus strain can be identified, nobody knows exactly when circulating virus can be identified. Along with vaccine development, there are issues regarding manufacturing, delivery, and deployment. To capture the uncertainty in vaccine arrival time, we let T follow an exponential distribution.