An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark

Because NPI implementation disrupts daily activities vital to a productive society, they should only be used when they will be effective. Thus, in developing triggers, NPI cost must be balanced with NPI effectiveness. In this work, we use person-days lost to measure NPI cost and effectiveness. NPIs cause person-day losses by shutting down vital activities, but mitigate person-day losses by reducing mortality. By capturing the dynamic relationship between NPI implementation, mortality, and associated person-day losses, our model provides a mechanism for finding an NPI triggering scheme that helps minimize total person-days lost during the time period before vaccines become available.