An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark

Our model was limited in several ways. First, although HJB can be derived for models assuming general terminal time (e.g., gamma), so far the control policy can only be computed assuming exponential terminal time. Second, the present modeling framework does not capture uncertainty in parameter estimation, i.e. the model accuracy relies on accurate estimation of input parameters. In practice, collection of accurate data and estimation of input parameters from data can be challenging and time consuming. Third, the present modeling framework assumes equal effect of various NPIs in a homogeneously-mixed population, while different NPIs will have distinct impacts for disparate population groups. Finally, bang-bang control must be further refined since it is not clear that on/off implementation is realistic for larger communities. To better apply optimal control methods in disease control problems, continued efforts should be made to refine the present model and to better estimate the input parameters.