An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark

Many uncertainties exist in estimating flu parameters, future research directions include developing a model that allows using stochastic rather than deterministic inputs and updates the control polices in real time. Since NPI implementation is not mandatory, compliance to NPI requirements is crucial for successful implementation. Community engagement, job security, and disruption of daily life affect compliance to NPI implementation [7] . Moreover, prolonged outbreak might result in compliance fatigue. Thus, in future work, we will integrate time-based compliance models into the system dynamics. Other important research directions include consideration of population heterogeneity, stochasticity and partial observability in disease outbreak, and developing methods for general terminal time distributions.