An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions

Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark

Cumulative death was most affected by the death rate, the basic recovery number and the recovery rate. For higher death rates, a higher proportion of infected people will die. For higher basic reproductive number, more people will be infected, resulting in more deaths even when the death rate is smaller. For lower recovery rate, infected people recover at a slower rate, and thus more people will be infected. This suggests that an influenza virus with a high death rate, a high basic reproductive number and a small recovery rate is less affected by NPI implementation. NPI cost does not seem to affect the cumulative death. However, NPI cost was identified as the most influential (PRCC = -0.865) in determining the intensity of NPI implementation. Different communities have different perspectives of death versus disruption of daily societal functions. The range of c should be determined by decision makers after carefully evaluating the demographic, cultural, and economic characteristics of the community.