Author: Lin, Feng; Muthuraman, Kumar; Lawley, Mark
Title: An optimal control theory approach to non-pharmaceutical interventions Document date: 2010_2_19
ID: 0x294f8t_52
Snippet: Our sensitivity analysis identified three important input parameters for determining the overall NPI intensity. The important parameters are the NPI cost, death rate, and recovery rate. For high NPI costs, it is not worthwhile implementing NPIs because the benefit is less than the cost. For higher death rates, the policy sacrifices daily societal functions to save lives. In contrast, when recovery rate is small, infected people recover more slowl.....
Document: Our sensitivity analysis identified three important input parameters for determining the overall NPI intensity. The important parameters are the NPI cost, death rate, and recovery rate. For high NPI costs, it is not worthwhile implementing NPIs because the benefit is less than the cost. For higher death rates, the policy sacrifices daily societal functions to save lives. In contrast, when recovery rate is small, infected people recover more slowly and continue infecting susceptible people. Thus, more NPI implementation is required. These results suggest that an influenza virus with a high death rate and a small recovery rate requires early intensive NPI implementation, particularly when the community places a high value on avoiding death.
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