Assessing the role of live poultry trade in community-structured transmission of avian influenza in China

Yang, Qiqi; Zhao, Xiang; Lemey, Philippe; Suchard, Marc A.; Bi, Yuhai; Shi, Weifeng; Liu, Di; Qi, Wenbao; Zhang, Guogang; Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Pybus, Oliver G.; Tian, Huaiyu

The prevention and control of avian influenza in China relies critically on an understanding of its mode of geographic spread (23) . Here, we undertook a series of analyses that combined AIV gene sequences from poultry in China with data on the live poultry transportation network in the country. Standard phylogeographic analyses revealed evidence that AIV subtypes in domestic poultry have spread between geographically proximate locations (most likely along national highways), and indicated that the level of trade in live poultry is an important contributor to the dissemination of three AIV lineages. We then used geographic modeling of the poultry trade network to identify five live poultry trade communities that represent the large-scale structure of the poultry trade in China, and confirmed the relevance of this structure to AIV spread in China using two complementary approaches.