Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes

Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

in which d is the Euclidean distance between a given pair of infected and susceptible trees, measured in kilometres. Both kernels in Equations 3 are isotropic, of the form K d,a ð Þ~1=(2pd)|f d; a ð Þ, where f d; a ð Þ is a one-dimensional kernel defined on the positive real axis (for the kernels in Equations 3, f d; a ð Þ is a negative exponential and half-Cauchy kernel, respectively). A cutoff at short distances was introduced (Text S1, Equations S5) to control kernel divergence. We remark that, owing to the kernel normalisation chosen in Equations 3, the secondary transmission rate b is measured in days 21 km 2 , while the primary transmission rate e is measured in days 21 (see Text S1 for a discussion of this point).