Author: Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.
Title: Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Document date: 2014_4_24
ID: 01yc7lzk_48
Snippet: While DIC 6 did clearly select for the exponential and Cauchy models with external infection as the most plausible at all sites, amongst all models tested in post hoc analysis of the data, it did not give decisive overall support for either (Text S1 and Table S1 ). The main reason for this, for which we refer the reader to the Discussion and Text S1, is the difficulty in discriminating between long-range dispersal, occurring within a census site,.....
Document: While DIC 6 did clearly select for the exponential and Cauchy models with external infection as the most plausible at all sites, amongst all models tested in post hoc analysis of the data, it did not give decisive overall support for either (Text S1 and Table S1 ). The main reason for this, for which we refer the reader to the Discussion and Text S1, is the difficulty in discriminating between long-range dispersal, occurring within a census site, and primary infection incoming from outside. All subsequent analyses apply to the more conservative model with exponential dispersal kernel and external infection. We remark, however, that the results shown below are very similar when using estimates from the Cauchy model with external infection.
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