Author: Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.
Title: Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Document date: 2014_4_24
ID: 01yc7lzk_49
Snippet: Having selected the exponential model from a post hoc analysis, we now investigate parameter estimation for this model from early disease snapshots. The kernel type itself could not be identified from early snapshots. Our situation is therefore analogous to a broad class of epidemics in which prior evidence would favour a particular model (here the exponential, or equivalently the Cauchy kernel) and the question is then how soon can the parameter.....
Document: Having selected the exponential model from a post hoc analysis, we now investigate parameter estimation for this model from early disease snapshots. The kernel type itself could not be identified from early snapshots. Our situation is therefore analogous to a broad class of epidemics in which prior evidence would favour a particular model (here the exponential, or equivalently the Cauchy kernel) and the question is then how soon can the parameters be estimated during an emerging epidemics (see Discussion for further consideration of model selection).
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