Author: Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.
Title: Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Document date: 2014_4_24
ID: 01yc7lzk_47
Snippet: A variety of models were compared, comprising secondary infection kernels with and without external infection, and external infection alone. The deviance information criterion (DIC 6 ) strongly supported spatially structured models with additional external infection as the most plausible at all four sites. We conclude that, while the epidemic is largely driven by secondary infection between infected and susceptible trees within each site, there a.....
Document: A variety of models were compared, comprising secondary infection kernels with and without external infection, and external infection alone. The deviance information criterion (DIC 6 ) strongly supported spatially structured models with additional external infection as the most plausible at all four sites. We conclude that, while the epidemic is largely driven by secondary infection between infected and susceptible trees within each site, there are sufficient numbers of isolated new foci at each site to infer that external infection continues to perturb the system. Such disturbance is consistent with long distance dispersal that is known to occur during tropical storms [29, 32] .
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