Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes

Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.

There was evidence of strong consistency for posterior distributions amongst sites. This is shown in Figure 4A correspondence of magnitudes and trends in b t between the two Broward sites (Figure 4A ), which are located close to each other (cf. Figure 1A) . The more distant Dade sites ( Figure 4B ) are themselves more distantly separated than the Broward sites (cf. Figure 1A) and show at first a less consistent pattern (see Figure S8 ). However, if we allow for a 1-month lag in the rates between D1 and D2, the two series of estimates display again a strong correlation ( Figure 4B ). Such a time lag would be consistent with delayed introduction of the pathogen or the vector, but awaits further analysis and testing. Similar, yet more regular patterns at all four sites emerge when comparing estimates at resolution DT = 6 months (see Figure S9 ).