Author: Neri, Franco M.; Cook, Alex R.; Gibson, Gavin J.; Gottwald, Tim R.; Gilligan, Christopher A.
Title: Bayesian Analysis for Inference of an Emerging Epidemic: Citrus Canker in Urban Landscapes Document date: 2014_4_24
ID: 01yc7lzk_7
Snippet: The methods are organised as follows. The first three sections set the general problem by describing the data used for parameter estimation and the data collection process (first section), the models fitted to the data (second section), and methods for Bayesian parameter estimation (third section). Model selection methods are explained in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we discuss temporal-window techniques for the change of parameter e.....
Document: The methods are organised as follows. The first three sections set the general problem by describing the data used for parameter estimation and the data collection process (first section), the models fitted to the data (second section), and methods for Bayesian parameter estimation (third section). Model selection methods are explained in the fourth section. In the fifth section, we discuss temporal-window techniques for the change of parameter estimates with time; the sixth section describes techniques for parameter changes amongst census sites. The seventh section describes goodness-of-fit tests. In the eighth and final section, we give details on simulating predictive distributions of epidemic outbreaks.
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