Author: Arinaminpathy, N.; McLean, A. R.
Title: Evolution and emergence of novel human infections Document date: 2009_11_22
ID: 0gt8lb08_11
Snippet: The terms in the denominator arise from rescaling time by the mean infectious period: see appendix in the electronic supplementary material for details of derivations. Using the well-established Gillespie algorithm . (Gillespie 1977) , this process can be straightforwardly simulated in continuous time. In the case of an infection eventually going extinct, any human cases arising from the index case are collectively a 'cluster'. We define 'emergen.....
Document: The terms in the denominator arise from rescaling time by the mean infectious period: see appendix in the electronic supplementary material for details of derivations. Using the well-established Gillespie algorithm . (Gillespie 1977) , this process can be straightforwardly simulated in continuous time. In the case of an infection eventually going extinct, any human cases arising from the index case are collectively a 'cluster'. We define 'emergence' as a situation in which the probability that the outbreak will spontaneously sputter to extinction is less than 10 26 . Formally, this occurs when there are m cases of the adapted
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