Author: Arinaminpathy, N.; McLean, A. R.
Title: Evolution and emergence of novel human infections Document date: 2009_11_22
ID: 0gt8lb08_8
Snippet: We assume that the host population is sufficiently large to neglect depletion of susceptibles: this is feasible in the early stages of emergence, where there are only comparatively few cases. For simplicity, we also assume that the host population is homogeneous in susceptibility to infection. Furthermore, we assume that the pathogen has to undergo a series of discrete 'steps' in order to adapt for human transmission, with each step acquiring an .....
Document: We assume that the host population is sufficiently large to neglect depletion of susceptibles: this is feasible in the early stages of emergence, where there are only comparatively few cases. For simplicity, we also assume that the host population is homogeneous in susceptibility to infection. Furthermore, we assume that the pathogen has to undergo a series of discrete 'steps' in order to adapt for human transmission, with each step acquiring an increment in its reproductive number. Thus, we label each adaptive stage with i, where i ¼ 0 is the wild-type stage and i ¼ n is the adapted stage. We also have a series of reproductive numbers R 0
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