Author: Camacho, Anton; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Graham, Andrea L.; Carrat, Fabrice; Ratmann, Oliver; Cazelles, Bernard
Title: Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study Document date: 2011_12_22
ID: 12y420k8_23
Snippet: On the other hand, the newly emerging variant in the Mut hypothesis has a 60 per cent chance of early extinction [24] because it has a low effective reproduction number R e 1.7 (electronic supplementary material, text S5) and only one host initially infected. This latter choice can be justified a posteriori: the ML estimated level of antigenic escape is high (s ML 20% ) and similar to that of antigenic cluster transitions occurring each 2-8 years.....
Document: On the other hand, the newly emerging variant in the Mut hypothesis has a 60 per cent chance of early extinction [24] because it has a low effective reproduction number R e 1.7 (electronic supplementary material, text S5) and only one host initially infected. This latter choice can be justified a posteriori: the ML estimated level of antigenic escape is high (s ML 20% ) and similar to that of antigenic cluster transitions occurring each 2-8 years at the scale of the global human population [25, 26] . However, we demonstrate in electronic supplementary material, text S6, that the AIC, the s ML and the risk of extinction are only weakly sensitive to the relaxation of this assumption.
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