Selected article for: "epidemic mathematical model and mathematical model"
Author: Camacho, Anton; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Graham, Andrea L.; Carrat, Fabrice; Ratmann, Oliver; Cazelles, Bernard
Title: Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study
  • Document date: 2011_12_22
    • ID: 12y420k8_2
    Snippet: A commonly invoked hypothesis is that antigenically distinct, co-circulating influenza strains that confer only partial, humoral cross-immunity are each driving separate influenza outbreaks. Based on this assumption, Barry et al. [6] estimated the level of cross-protection between the first and the second waves of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic in US Army Camps and Britain, and Rios-Doria & Chowell [8] fitted a two-strain mathematical model to the 1918 H.....
    Document: A commonly invoked hypothesis is that antigenically distinct, co-circulating influenza strains that confer only partial, humoral cross-immunity are each driving separate influenza outbreaks. Based on this assumption, Barry et al. [6] estimated the level of cross-protection between the first and the second waves of the 1918 H1N1 pandemic in US Army Camps and Britain, and Rios-Doria & Chowell [8] fitted a two-strain mathematical model to the 1918 H1N1 epidemic in Geneva. However, it is also commonly believed that evolving influenza strains may take years to escape population immunity, while the observed inter-wave periods are typically of the order of a few weeks [2] . Unfortunately, virus or serum samples from separate waves of past pandemics are too scarce to resolve this issue on empirical grounds.

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