Selected article for: "Maximum likelihood and ML analysis"
Author: Camacho, Anton; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Graham, Andrea L.; Carrat, Fabrice; Ratmann, Oliver; Cazelles, Bernard
Title: Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study
  • Document date: 2011_12_22
    • ID: 12y420k8_4
    Snippet: What is lacking to direct further research is an evidence-based comparison of alternative immunological hypotheses that attempts to explain multiple-wave influenza outbreaks. We formulate six mechanistic stochastic models that incorporate a variety of potential antigenic and immunological mechanisms (i.e. positing both viral and host heterogeneity) that may explain rapidly occurring reinfection waves during influenza outbreaks. Particular emphasi.....
    Document: What is lacking to direct further research is an evidence-based comparison of alternative immunological hypotheses that attempts to explain multiple-wave influenza outbreaks. We formulate six mechanistic stochastic models that incorporate a variety of potential antigenic and immunological mechanisms (i.e. positing both viral and host heterogeneity) that may explain rapidly occurring reinfection waves during influenza outbreaks. Particular emphasis is given to ensure that each hypothesis is associated with exactly one, parsimonious model. Using a simulation-based maximum-likelihood (ML) analysis, we interface these models with case data from the two-wave influenza epidemic that was reported on the remote island of Tristan da Cunha (TdC) in 1971 [13] (figure 1).

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