Author: Shengjie Lai; Isaac Bogoch; Nick Ruktanonchai; Alexander Watts; Xin Lu; Weizhong Yang; Hongjie Yu; Kamran Khan; Andrew J Tatem
Title: Assessing spread risk of Wuhan novel coronavirus within and beyond China, January-April 2020: a travel network-based modelling study Document date: 2020_2_5
ID: iat80b4l_39
Snippet: In terms of domestic connectivity and risk, the high population outflows from three counties in Wuhan with many colleges and universities in the first two weeks of January were likely college students leaving the city to avoid the peak traffic just one week before the New Year. Because of the early timing of this movement, many students might have avoided the period when the virus spread rapidly in Wuhan, and their risk of spreading the virus may.....
Document: In terms of domestic connectivity and risk, the high population outflows from three counties in Wuhan with many colleges and universities in the first two weeks of January were likely college students leaving the city to avoid the peak traffic just one week before the New Year. Because of the early timing of this movement, many students might have avoided the period when the virus spread rapidly in Wuhan, and their risk of spreading the virus may be low as well. However, our results suggest that during the two weeks prior to Wuhan's travel ban, a large number of travellers still departed Wuhan into neighbouring cities and other megacities in China and may have spread the virus to new areas, as the timing of the lockdown occurred during the latter stages of peak population numbers leaving Wuhan. Further exacerbating this risk, we found that during the outbreak's initial stages, a particularly high proportion of cases travelled with illness caused by the virus, together with the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV through asymptomatic contacts, potentially causing additional transmission during travel [28] .
Search related documents:
Co phrase search for related documents- additional transmission and large number: 1, 2
- asymptomatic contact and city leave: 1
- asymptomatic contact and high population: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6
- asymptomatic contact and large number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- city leave and large number: 1
- college student and high population: 1, 2
- college student and large number: 1
- domestic connectivity and large number: 1
- early timing and lockdown timing: 1, 2
- early timing and movement early timing: 1, 2
- high population and initial stage: 1, 2
- high population and large number: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22
- high population and lockdown timing: 1, 2
- high population and new area: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
- initial stage and large number: 1, 2
- large number and new area: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
Co phrase search for related documents, hyperlinks ordered by date