Author: Camacho, Anton; Ballesteros, Sébastien; Graham, Andrea L.; Carrat, Fabrice; Ratmann, Oliver; Cazelles, Bernard
Title: Explaining rapid reinfections in multiple-wave influenza outbreaks: Tristan da Cunha 1971 epidemic as a case study Document date: 2011_12_22
ID: 12y420k8_27
Snippet: Recently, Mathews et al. [11] fitted a deterministic model (similar to the AoN model) on the same dataset. Their parameter estimates were very close to our values except for R 0 (6.44 versus 11.27) and for the mean latent (1.36 versus 2.07 days) and infective (0.98 versus 2.44 days) periods. We suggest that this discrepancy is mainly attributable to the incorporation of demographic stochasticity in our approach. Indeed, deterministic models negle.....
Document: Recently, Mathews et al. [11] fitted a deterministic model (similar to the AoN model) on the same dataset. Their parameter estimates were very close to our values except for R 0 (6.44 versus 11.27) and for the mean latent (1.36 versus 2.07 days) and infective (0.98 versus 2.44 days) periods. We suggest that this discrepancy is mainly attributable to the incorporation of demographic stochasticity in our approach. Indeed, deterministic models neglect the probability of stochastic extinction and should implicitly underestimate the above parameters that play a significant role during the inter-wave period (electronic supplementary material, figure S9 ).
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